Picture Perfect

Indonesia's worst kept secret these days was reflected when an Indonesian oil executive joked to his Pakistani colleague that the Pakistani got the wrong picture of the Indonesian president (in the Pakistani slide pack, it was the picture of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono). Indeed the Vice Presidency is widely perceived to be the one calling the shot these days. The latest rumor mill is that Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who heads Golkar Party, may well split the ticket and run separately from his nominal boss in the 2009 presidential election.

What started the latest bout of speculation is Golkar's miraculous discovery that their political interests are not served by the president's cabinet. In two recent cases, Golkar's candidates for provincial governors lost their appeal of the election results. Golkar's 'chief whip' in the House of Representatives (DPR) have publicly threatened to withdraw parliamentary support to the government and claimed that the majority of Golkar's executive board shared this view.

Publicly at least, the vice president have always maintained that his top priority will be to serve out his five year term together with the president. Privately it will be another miracle if a seasoned politician such as MJK (as the VP is known) did not think of occupying the grander presidential palace after a term in the less grander vice presidential palace (the lawns are markedly bigger in the former).

But the series of miracles are not an unusual occurence with Golkar. After 30 odd years as the ruling party under the late President Soeharto, most people and political hacks wrote Golkar off the scene following Soeharto's timely demise from power. However two presidents later, Golkar emerged as the second biggest party in parliament and its chief becomes the vice president.

So what will happen next year ? One scenario is indeed Golkar is pressuring MJK to split and aim for the RI-1 spot. It is possible that following results in other non disputable election results (where Golkar's candidates also lost), Golkar felt its association with an unpopular administration - already , President SBY presided over two fuels price increases, an economy of ever increasing food prices, and an unending series of corruption scandals - would end up hurting its electoral prospects.

Another scenario is that some people believe that MJK is acutely aware that he will not make President. There is an unwritten rule that Indonesian presidents must be Javanese. MJK comes from South Sulawesi and may well decide that he is better off to throw his lot with President SBY.

But in case MJK changes his mind, he has a precedent. President B.J. Habibie who was in charge for two years serving out Soeharto's term was the only non Javanese; he also hails from South Sulawesi. In such an event, the Pakistani executive would be well served to change his slides once and for all.