Anybody who has been reading up on next year's forecasts- issued by the members of the commentariat- is unlikely to feel optimistic about 2009. A recent Rabobank forecast, for example, believes that the UK economy will shrink by 1.5 % and that unemployment will reach as high as 8.5 % (at the time this newspaper went to press, it is not certain whether the predicted unemployed include Gordon Brown).
The Indonesians amongst us old enough to remember the infamous Krismon surely now have that sinking feel of how familiar all of this is. However - there are probably lesser number of Indonesians now who remain optimistic that somehow, all of the doomsday scenario will come to naught.
Of course there is some basis for being a tad optimistic about the situation. In a survey by The Economist issued for the 10th anniversary of the Asian Economic Crisis in June of this year, it is quite robust in the assessments that our banks are stronger than before; that our foreign reserves are more plentiful ; and that our economy is not as reliant on foreign investment as before. In addition - in the words of a former ambassador of the court of St. James's to Indonesia - "Indonesia is a dissappointing country; it dissappoints the pessimists, but it also dissappoints the optimists".
For all our sake, may Indonesia be a very dissappointing country in 2009.
The Indonesians amongst us old enough to remember the infamous Krismon surely now have that sinking feel of how familiar all of this is. However - there are probably lesser number of Indonesians now who remain optimistic that somehow, all of the doomsday scenario will come to naught.
Of course there is some basis for being a tad optimistic about the situation. In a survey by The Economist issued for the 10th anniversary of the Asian Economic Crisis in June of this year, it is quite robust in the assessments that our banks are stronger than before; that our foreign reserves are more plentiful ; and that our economy is not as reliant on foreign investment as before. In addition - in the words of a former ambassador of the court of St. James's to Indonesia - "Indonesia is a dissappointing country; it dissappoints the pessimists, but it also dissappoints the optimists".
For all our sake, may Indonesia be a very dissappointing country in 2009.
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2 comments:
One factor that made me quite dilligent to check this blog is your writing style that some times tries to make the readers smile.
Two examples from this entry are your use of "...the court of St.James..."; and "...the predicted unemployed to include Gordon Brown..."
My narcistic ego is proud to know that probably not every one understands.
Globally, the fate of global economy will highly be influenced by how US and China manage their economy. Thomas Friedman mentioned a good illustration that China is like the bus that we saw in the movie "Speed". The bus must run at least certain mph otherwise the bomb will explode. China must have around 8% economic growth otherwise social unrest is a certainty.
Nationally, the latest prediction for Indonesia economic growth in 2009 is around 4.5%. Even with higher growth, our country was unable to absorb all the unemployments. The 7 priority that our beloved president mentioned several days ago made me laugh. Those are the things that his government must focus regardless the economy situation.
Until next entry...
Sir,
Your analogy presents a new spin on Speed. I am not a fan of Mr.Reeves (Keanu, not George or Christoper) but I believe at the end of the feature, the protagonist character managed to save the said bus. In the case of China, it is not yet clear how fast is the bus speeding and quite a few commentariat believes that the driver has a difficult relationship with the truth on saying the destination of the bus. In addition - if you recall the ruckus after the Chile summit- the bus has so far refused to help the stranded passengers , despite fervent pleas to do so.
In the end, I for one believe 2009 continues to be a critical milestone (not only for Go Live) but for others. As Captain Spock famously confided, "The needs of the many outweight the needs of the few. Or the One".
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