Fully accessorized car....Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Till Debt Do Us Part

But this article is not about that rumour of a senior minister plotting to deport another senior minister (whose welfare not as equal). It is however about the current crisis , once thought only will engulf the U.S. Of A but not WOUSA (world outside the USA). In particular, this crisis is about whether indeed in our case, capitalism is at bay.
Unless you have been staying in a deserted island since early October, you would have heard whispers of pure poison about the rise and fall of capitalism and that the time of socialism is upon you. The Economist, that bastion of free market and democratic reform has predictably put a case arguing that infact capitalism should still be the preferred model, because it has been responsible for all the wealth creation that the world has ever seen. It has also argued that speculators , the favourite bad guy making the rounds these days are in fact not responsible at all for this crisis.
So should we in Indonesia flog capitalism at the next market and try our luck with Cooperatives?
Cooperatives in Indonesia - much to its acknowledged "father", co-proclamator Hatta's dismay- never really found the market equilibrium.
Even in the bad old days of the Krismon, we never looked back and continue to worship at the temple of capitalism...
Friday, October 24, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Great Expectations
Thursday, October 16, 2008
A change in the climate ?

The impact of the rout should not be understated. A recent special report suggested that a staggering USD 10 trillion of value could be wiped out between now and 2009. For comparison, this is 10 % of the annual US ' Gross Domestic Product.
There is a temptation to focus on wealth maintenance rather than health maintenance. Indeed your correspondent felt compelled to understand the answer to this question.
Though Mr. Sarkozy have confirmed that the funds earmarked to save the laissez fare economy will not result in less fund available to fight climate change, the details have not been immediately available. It is difficult though to comprehend that there won't be an impact. By now, the US have added USD 700 billion to their USD 435 trillion budget deficit, all in the name of saving the US economy. The UK have confirmed that it will spend GBP 250 billion to nationalize household names such as Lloyd's TSB and HBOS. The EU - old and new - does not want to be left behind and have pledged EUR 350 billion, also to nationalise troubled banks.
Our dear government meanwhile have indeed taken some steps. However at the time this newspaper went to press, there has been no discussion with regards to if less funds will be made available to fend off climate change. Upon closer inspection however - given the very low number of projects planned-the impact appreared to be unsurprisingly negligible.
The crux of the activities have not been expected to be funded or coming by the government. They have been expected to be a result of a change in the behaviour of each and every individual's. Plenty of these also did not require investment.
Therefore please continue to
* B2W (less pollution)
* Switch off the lights when you leave the room (less coal being burnt)
* Convert those energy guzzler light bulbs (ditto)
* Be as paperless at work as possible (be a tree hugger)
* Continue to print on used paper
* Don't send unnecessarily large attachments with your email (less use of your bandwidth, therefore less energy consumed)
* Design those houses who are easy on the sunlights
* Set those aircons on timers
Keep those ideas flowing in ...
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Week From Hell

As would become rather obvious by now, instead the week was spent glued to the telly and or surfing that bastion of western newsmedia, CNN.com. The last time your correspondent formed such attachments to the twin tubes of tv and internet was during the September 11 attacks. Though the causes are markedly different, the sinking feeling is oddly similar.
To make things worse, there does not seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. The worrying thing is that this crisis seems to have a life of its own. The oft-cited "the index has hit its lowest level since somany years" well hit a new low the day after. Why buy now when you can buy it cheaper tomorrow?
Such is the life of the monster though that the governments seemed powerlesss to put a stop to it. It is also frustrating to see that the governments have even gone to the extend of nationalizing insurance companies, investment banks and building society. At least this has not been the tactic chosen by our dear president and let's hope he is not tempted. Governments across the world don't have a good track record of running insurance companies for example. Is this the time for them to dabble their hands into the companies ?
Friends I spoke to have advised to keep our seatbelts on. Most seemed to agree that though this situation maybe a holding pattern, the ground is not visible yet. A thick fog of uncertainty and panic is blanketing the situation and the best thing to do may well be not to make any rush decisions. Alas the irrational exuberance of panic investors may well be the fitting match to the same irrational exuberance which started this giddying crisis in the first place.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Laugh at First Sight

That , at any rate, was apparently what American Insurance Group (AIG), an insurance company, was doing around last week. At this point let me declare a potential conflict of interest : I own an AIA Life Insurance policy, so I do have an interest in seeing the company is still around when my policy expires.
I am guessing there were plenty of glee around the table of business ethics wonks when news of this sales conference spread. They have a new set of ammunition when this morning it was reported AIG would receive an additional USD 35 billion. It is this correspondent's feverish hope that AIG would not be tempted to splash it on another junket trip (not even on a smaller resort, just because the new funds is less than the first injection).
Given the barrage of less than good news , it is quite likely that the AIG sales reps in the holiday resort will be joined by central bankers , ex employees of Lehman Brothers and the common people like you and me (though by this time - with all these people - the resort should be rather full)।
This turn of events is a big pity for the development of the insurance market for Indonesia. There are plenty of my fellow citizens who must be wishing they bought more handbags than insurance policies. But the reality is more and more people were gambling their future on insurance.
I remember a close friend of mine who is working on the sideline as an insurance agent. He laughed outloud when he knew how small my policy was. He immediately offered me a policy which would have meant I need to pay Rp. 3.5 million per month. Strangely enough I have never heard from him again since the last time we spoke , which was ,er, just before the crisis begin
I don't think he is still laughing at me now. But I also am not laughing either. On paper , I am not sure what is the return on my stock market-linked policy. But at least my portfolio is not all in insurance.
For all our sakes, this downturn had better be not too severe and not too long. However as we know we did not get to where we are overnight. Getting out won't be an overnight trip either, though spending it in a resort might ease the pain.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Nightmare on our Street

We do not have the time to go through the usual motion resulting in the nation back to square one after, say, 3 months. All the usual players, legislators, policymakers and the commentariat ranks need to start from the same page. The stakes are frankly too high to continue play politics as usual. If there is a time to play as a team, this is it. Where is the Lembaga Penjamin? Where is the DPP Real Estate Indonesia ?
The reality is though that with the elections around the corner, there is a possibility that , in fact, it will be politics as usual. The MPs will play safe and not taking any risks with a potentially budget busting policies. The central bank and the financial institutions are probably reluctant to support any monetary expansion by a (potentially) lameduck administration.
Short of suggesting all the stakeholders is in need of changes of their living organ inside of their cranial, it does not appear there is much that can be done overnight.
So what is there that can be done ? This newspaper has a few suggestions :
1)The central bank to impose a new policy disincentivising the banking industry to extend loans to the people who can not have a mortgage. This newspaper does not have access to the extent to which mortgage accounts for banking loans but it may be quite significant.
2)The central bank to increase the industry's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for a definite period of time. This additional breathing space can be used for the central bank either to nudge banks to conduct self audit or if forced to externally audit the suspected banks.
3)Commission a quick study to get a feel of the interconnectedness between the local portfolio and those of the now infamous CDs and all the other exotic acronyms spewn by the U.S.
It is your correspondent's fervent hope and wishes that our country and tax payers like you and me do not need to bear the burden of a bailout to help the fat cats who were grossly overpaid and grossly incompetent.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
House of Cards

It is commonly known that despite talk of a "decoupling", the fact of the matter is that Asian economies are growing less than predicted. There is therefore a strong base to believe that our economy will be quite affected by this latest development.
Our exports to the U.S. would most likely be slowing down , impacting our trade balance. Remember that as late as August of this year, our own president had tabled a budget of Rp. 1,000 trillion. This reduction in export receipts will impact the government's spending plans, of which the main feature was the already earmarked 20 % for education. This maybe one of the first to be impacted.
Speaking about budget, it is useful to speak about the middle class' budget. Jakartans will notice the web of sky rise office buildings and apartments currently blanketing Jakarta's skies. As the economy slows down, money becomes scarce and banks , real estate companies are relying ever more on the monthly mortgage payments. So long as the people still have jobs, this is not an issue. However the moment unemployment picks up, the probability of failure to keep up with the mortgage payment becomes higher. Assuming the houses/apartments were reposessed and offload into the market, such act will depress the property markt and may result in a negative valuation for the remaining owners. Banks become even more depressed, funds to invest or to cover liabilities become even scarcer. Overnight rates shot up, the central bank might have to step in. Sound familiar so far ?
The major difference (I think) between our economy and those of Uncle Sam's is that our mortgage market aren't as influential. Quite a few couples still live with their parents. Irrational exuberance did not have too many card-carrying members. The other - potentially more lethal- difference is quite a few property investments are speculative in nature. Either it is not being occupied or it is leased. The jury is still out on the strength of the buy-to-lease market but employment of young professionals would be a key factor.
As can be ascertained , thus far, the silver lining has not appeared in the horizon. However, as one former Ambassador of the Court of St. James to the country memorably said, "Indonesia is a country for the optimistic pessimist". This pessimist would more than prefer to be proven wrong.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
A Safer Exodus

The case is strengthened by the serial unreliability of the alternative modus of road transport, especially that of the trains. Derailed trains, accidents involving the daredevil passengers sitting on top of the coaches are a common occurence. It is feared that as the train activities pick up, the incidents become more frequent.
Therefore if the government still doubts about the return on their investment of the highway, they should start with a good feeling that by doing so, they have saved the lives of their citizens. Should this not be sufficient, surely a moral bancruptcy has occured.
Return of a more hedonistic nature are obviously still can be expected. If you look at the developed highway system of Europe for example, where your correspondent is mildly acquainted with, hotels, amusement parks, theme parks, petrol stations , all sprang up like mushroom in the wet season. These bring investment which begets employment and tax revenues. These in turn create the multiplier effect in both the national and the local economies. At the same time it encourages entrepreneurs to be more innovative in adjusting to this new phenomenon and compete for customers. So everybody wins, right ?
But the biggest winner will be people like you and me. Our travels will be safer, more relaxing and - hopefully- will spawn an industry of local winnebagos / RVs !
Saturday, September 27, 2008
The Rainbow Warriors

Anybody who was in Pondok Indah Mall tonight must have been wishing for an early Lebaran. The place was jammed with cars , bumper to bumper. It took as long to leave the underground parking lot as it does to travel from Kebayoran Lama to the mall itself. The heat and pollution underground was unbearable and I felt really sorry for the security team and the parking attendants who were still there and could not escape from the netherworlds.
Of course this being one of Saturday night plays a factor for this additional hot air but I wonder if the other reason is the showing of Laskar Pelangi, based on an acclaimed best seller about the travails of two idealistic teachers and their students in Belitong ("Biliton").
Your correspondent, generally speaking, is not a big fan of local movies. But I am making an exception for this wonderfuly touching movie. The story is well known therefore it is not repeated here.
All sorts of emotions came up. Childhood memories, emotional attachment and perhaps even social cohesion.
Childhood memories
Watching the movie brings back your correspondent's childhood memories of the situation around 1979. The products, newspapers, cars, music. Did anybody see the blue Datsun Pick up ?
Emotional attachment
The more emotionally accomplished might feel blessed that despite their problems living in Jakarta, all their whinings are nothing compared to the very basic needs of education that those very brave children in Belitong were fighting for.
It also reminds me of all my teachers from my SD years. I have lost touch of all of my SD friends and I wonder what happened to them. I am now 37 years old so it has been 25 years since the last time I saw them.
Social cohesion
But perhaps the real message of this narrative is further proof of Indonesian diversity and that Indonesians of all background can and should forget their differences and focus on how to make the most of it. The children are malays, chinese; moslem, mysticists and buddhists. And yet , despite the odds stacked against them, they blended into a solid, close and loyal team.
In preparation for the maelstrom of bad economic news from the US and the politics for the parliamentary and presidential elections of next year, this spirit would really come in handy inside each and everyone of us, Indonesians.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Coming to an election near you
Discussions at wedding parties and dinner table often mention the Rizal phenomenon. It is not widely known how he has been funding one full page full colour ad in the country's largest dailies. Recently however it is noticed that a private tv station displayed its logo in a billboard of Rizal's.
What is also not clear is Dr. Mallarangeng's objectives. He has not come out and say what his plans are, whether it involves running as an independent or jumping into bed with some of the 38 political parties which will be contesting next year's election.
Therefore people like your correspondent is at a loss in understanding his motives. Some people believe that Dr. Malarangeng is a proxy of elements of the Golongan Karya (GOLKAR) political party who wanted to disrupt the progress Mr. Soetrisno Bachir, a one-time client of Dr. Mallarangeng (he created Mr. Bachir's ads and bought airtime to play them. In fact there are large similarities between the themes of Dr. Mallarangeng's ads and Mr. Bachir's).
All this is purely speculation. However indeed the private tv station associating itself with Dr. Mallarangeng is owned by the head of GOLKAR's supervisory board. That , your correspondent believes, started the speculation about GOLKAR aligning itself with Dr. Mallarangeng.
What does all this mean for the voters? Against this background, one must also consider the recent barrage of stories alleging how MPs have been taking facilitation payments. Your correspondent believes all this builds a picture which is not rosy for the political establishment. In essence these stories highlight that all MPs are created equal; ie no matter what parties they belong to, they all took the money when offered.
Arguably this reduces voters' trust in the parties. It can either lead to support for "independent" with no visible political associations , like Dr. Mallarangeng. Or, the second possibility is that the as voters distrust the parties, they decide to boycott the election and not vote at all.
If the second possibility were to be realized, it will be a pity for Indonesian democracy. The right to vote is a precious right and should not be waved on a whim. Granted 'not voting' is also a vote but it should be taken as a last resort.
Friday, August 22, 2008
Have a winnebago ?

Why am I writing about this at all. Ah but in today's KOMPAS, the respected daily appear to argue for a rethink of the Trans Java motorway to be built on 1,200 km of road between Merak and Banyuwangi. By building on its current grote postweg expedition it warns policy makers about making the same mistake that governor general Daendels made when he built that road 200 years ago.
To be brutaly frank this is just about the most daft analysis I read and from Kompas it is even more annoying. Of course the grote postweg did not benefit the people. Did the Kompas reporter remember that Indonesia was ruled by a band of well armed Dutch traders? Hello anybody home?
The piece was directed to policy makers so that they took into considerations such aspects as potential damage to the environment, displacement of people etc. It even interviewed Emil Salim (alas not a relative) who basically cautioned the government to ensure all that is in place.
Ok so it is not all daft in this morning's piece. I completely agree with the observation about potential destructions to rice fields. And I don't understand how an executive plans to "replace" the affected fields with a similar one in another island. Is he talking about transmigration? Ow my gawd ...
Ah but wouldn't it be cool that Trans Java actually becomes a reality ? I have visions of a flotilla of R.V (recreational vehicles) filling up a wide motorway from Jakarta to Surabaya, passing through scenic locations and with plenty of rest areas complete with motels, restaurants (ah obviously need to put up gas stations), swimming pool for the kids ...
Ow this idea is so good I think I won't cancel my lifelong subscription to Kompas despite reading the silly piece ...
But will Trans Java actually be realized? I think the idea has been bandied about for a long time so if it is going to be built, it is about time. If any of you have a spare cash these days (as you do), you might want to quickly grab a strategic land, get talking to a motelier and restaurateur and a fuel marketing company. It may just be an investment which will pay handsomely ...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
On Vacation
.jpg)
So what does your correspondent do on vacation? Well not too much this time. So far, your correspondent is becoming a full time taxi driver for the kids, becoming well-versed in trying (focus is on trying) to restore a 1996 C-Class Mercedes Benz and balancing his financial condition.
Before starting off, it should be mentioned that the bbq on Sunday was a good one. Families came along and he thinks he managed to convert a few to succumb to the temptations of wines and cigars :)
The taxi run so far is quite taxing. In the process, he noticed that maybe he needs to wean Stuttgart's finest off the 88R and go back to 92R. Today he was told that the retail price of 92R has dipped just below Rp. 9,000 again. The gap has closed...
He is also building a checklist of the improvements which he is keen to do on his W 202. The car is beginning to have that nice smooth and shiny feel to the body. Guess all those biweekly trips to Medicars at Pondok Indah Mall begins to pay off.
Has your correspondent managed to escape the shackles of work? Well he is quite proud to admit that he only read and replied to four work-related emails on his first official leave day. The phone is switched off so he is not immediately contactable.
So far so good, let's see what other "homeworks" your correspondent will get tomorrow ...
Saturday, August 16, 2008
The forgotten "father" of the Republic
This is not a fictional biography of James Bond but rather the non-fictional history of Tan Malaka. In the folklore of the new order, Tan Malaka is he-whose name-should-not-be- mentioned. He occupies this place along with other politicians , who, deemed dangerous by both the 'old' and the 'new' orders, who found that there was a systematic cleansing of collective memory. This purge was achieved through a combination of a ban on their publications, their relatives shun by their neighbours and employment opportunities (especially the civil service) for relatives suddenly closed shut before their eyes.
But, thankfully, through the works of both established media (the respected newsweekly "Tempo" recently ran a special edition of Tan Malaka, titling the edition "the forgotten father of the Republic") and the alternative press (it's difficult to name them all) , the young-ish generation starts to hear an alternative version of the story of Tan Malaka.
At the risk of a spoiler effect, your correspondent decides not to divulge the details of the special edition. Needless to say it does seem a pity that Tempo appears to focus solely on Tan Malaka's side of the story and less on the 'establishment' side of the story. Understandbly there are reasons behind this, not least is probably that Tempo could have felt that sufficient time has been allocated to give the "official" version.
Your correspondent obviously is not a historian but in the process of reading the special edition, he obtains the impression that maybe Ibrahim (which is Tan Malaka' s real name; Datuk Tan Malaka is a title passed to him by his Clan) is a normal politician after all.
More to follow ...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Absolute power, corrupts absolutely
There have been accusations of MPs receiving facilitation payments in the past. Some have been convicted. Unfortunately those have been the exception rather than the rule.
The rule unfortunately is the cases were lost in the maze also known as the Indonesian legal system. The cynics have termed this system the case trading system. This newspaper's recent report on deputy attorney generals caught on record as receiving payments from lobbyists was but a recent example of just how corrupt the 3rd branch of government is.
So is there hope for a corrupt-free society and a just, fair legal system? Or is it like waiting for Godot?
More to follow ...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Light at the end of the Tunnel ?

Faisal Basri, a respected Economist, noted that the problem has been identified for some period of time. It is therefore a bit of a mystery why has this issue seen the light of day only in the last week or so.
Mysterious as it is, the problem is quite serious. Every other day, a small section on the respected Kompas daily carried a list of areas which will experience black outs. Both household and industrial customers are affected by the scheduled black outs. The area where your correspondent lives was supposed to have the pleasure of black out experience today, Monday July 14th. Through a stroke of good luck or otherwise, no black out has occured. Such is the nature of the crisis that while visiting an advisor who is ill in Singapore, the president arranged a meeting with an unnamed group of nine Singapore-based businessmen, that his administration is on the case.
In this newspaper's opinion, there is one additional solution that the country must consider. I am of course refering to Nuclear Power.
If Nuclear Power were a brand name, its reputation is quite radioactive. What with Chernobyl and the Three Mile Island "incidents" entering the folklore, it is understandable why governments around the world aren't automatically warming about it. And yet the facts speak for themselves. The current Nuclear power plants are state-of-the art and have received a lot of improvements. France is oft quoted as a shining example where nuclear works: its citizens enjoy one of the lowest electricity bills in the world, and its air is not mixed with CO2.
Of course there are drawbacks. Cost of building a nuclear plant is not exactly cheap. Then there is the age-old question of where to store the waste fuel.
Against these negatives is the ace card. Unlike power plants running on fossil fuels , whose supply as we know are located in suspect governments, nuclear runs on plutonium. Australia , which arguably is more stable than, say, Russia or Kazakhstan, control among the world's largest deposit of plutonium. Supply to Indonesia. This newspaper contends that the government should look into Nuclear, along with Biofuels, Wind and other alternative form of energy.
Saturday, July 05, 2008
Book review : The Man from Pare Pare
Surprisingly (or not ?) , his 512 days in office has so far proved to be less than popular, as measured by the number of books about it. The president himself penned the notable "Detik Detik yang Menentukan" in late 2005, a book which was well received. To latest addition to this slim compendium so far is written by A. Makmur Makka, a former aide.
Reading this work, one feels as if one is watching the "coming soon" clips while waiting for the main feature in a cinema. One only gets to see glimpses , not details. Unfortunately, the clip can't help since the movie is less than watchable.
This memoir appear to be targeted at archivists (did I see anybody raising their hands ?) who may have lost plenty of official documents. For that is surely one's perception , since a majority of this work is a list of government policies and statistics. This is rather surprising, considering memoirs are supposed to give the readers an insight into the subject's thoughts and personalities.
The author skims through arguably most of the subject's life (also a surprising choice, considering a memoir is commonly used to share the subject's life, from childhood onwards). Not too many new , previously unknown details emerged.
More critical reviewers (in case readers have not noticed, your correspondent is not one of them) is likely to judge this work as a mea culpa. Plenty of pages are devoted to the objectives, background and benefits of why Indonesia had to be able to produce the CN-235 and the N-250. Practically no airspace was allocated to why the precious state budget should not have been spent building more bridges, paying higher salaries for teachers and professors or others of that ilk.
In the end, this book tells something else about us as a nation. Our leaders' memoirs focus on what they did while they were in power. It unwittingly gives away the conclusion that after reaching the top, our leaders are not doing anything useful. In your correspondent's view, they should consider devoting their time for the improvement of Indonesia's situation. In this, your correspondent applauds President Habibie's Centre who is consistently pleading the case for democracy and human rights in Indonesia.
(The book is "The True Life of Habibie: Cerita di balik kesuksesan", A. Makmur Makka, IMAN 2008)
Friday, July 04, 2008
Change we can believe in
Barrack Obama? Hardly. How about SBY. Four years later, he has arguably done a good job in increasing the international standing of Indonesia.
So can speeches make a good leader? Can Obama deliver ? Is SBY delivering on his promises ? Arguably some of the best speech ever dellivered were made by exceptional leaders. Winston Churchill's speeches (or sections of them) are oft quoted and emulated even to this day and age. He is near-universally accepted as a great leader. More recently, President Reagan earned a reputation as "the great communicator" and he is credited with bringing the US out of a long recession , as well as effectively ending the cold war. Closer to home, President Soekarno is known as a stirring orator , a skill at present appears to be lacking in his familial successors.
Of course delivering good speeches are but a small trait every good leader should never leave home without. The other traits are experience, street credibility and that most elusive of them all, the ability to lead his/her charges.
Arguably, Obama lacks experience in running big size organizations (running between aisles of the U.S. Senate, especially for four years, is not exactly comparable to running a country). SBY scores better on this, considering he actually commanded big group of soldiers up to provincial level). Winston Churchill is an odd outlier, having led man in battle (a soldier in the Boer war) and led men in the posh party also known as the Tory party. Reagan's experience in leading the actor's union arguably helped him when he had to fight against other politicians (a species known to be prone to having more than one face).
Street credibility is rather a loose term but it is influenced by past successes or the perception of actually knowing what needs to be done and how to do it.
Finally, that final test, the success in leading the people. At least SBY had 3 years of actually leading a country and not 8 months of running for president. For better or for worse, the act of actually doing " it" , is the best way to answer how successful or not a leader is. The jury is still out for SBY but the jury has not even sat for Obama. Perhaps Obama is best served to return to his childhood city and have a word with its president.


