Blackberry users are not "autistic"

I often hear people hear illustrating as "autistic", those who are fascinated with certain electronic gadgets, the blackberry amongst them. Can I just say that this is an insult to autistic people and parents with autistic children. Please use the term sparingly and do not denigrate its meaning by confusing it with blackberry users.

It is heartbreaking that -as I found out today- educated people are still not aware of what autisms are and what challenges are being faced by autistic children and parents and also siblings of autistic children. Our lives are already difficult enough. Please do not make it more by your ignorance and disrespect.
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My only son was diagnosed with autistic spectrum disorder a couple of years ago. It was a devastating news to swallow and we continue to try figuring out how to live with it and how to ensure the best possible future for him.
I am writing to seek some ideas from the readers as to what do they know as the practical and realistic expectations for a special needs children's future, and for autistic children in particular. Is anybody out there aware of vocations most suited for autistic adults ? Realistically, what can be expected in terms of independence once the children reaches adulthood ? What skills should be taught and what are the challenges which need to be overcome ?



Thank You

All the President's Men

As the ranks of the unemployed widened, one person is more prepared and more protected by American regulation than, say, Joe the Plumber. As Barack Obama takes the oath of office on January 20th, George W. Bush receives his pink slip and join his fellow countryfellows. If one needs further evidence of his august stature , look no further than his transport immediately after the inauguration. The Toxic Texan will be traveling back to Dallas onboard USAF 29000, the VC-25 aircraft which -if he were still an american president, will receive the call sign "Air Force One"- is hardly sitting in coach with his legs pressed by the passenger in front and fearing he will lose his luggage.

When your last job was "leader of the free world", life could be a lot worse. Unlike the common people who had to be vigilant to thieves and the odd house burglars, former US presidents are accorded Secret Service protection (George W. Bush becomes the first former president who does not receive life-time protection. A new bill was passed recently, limiting protection only up to 10 years after living office). Unlike the average Americans who may have to find a new smaller house (after their McMansion was foreclosured), Mr. Bush can raise donations from the public to build his presidential library (where as tradition is a fairly big complex and where tradition dictates, he gets to build a replica of the Oval Office). The federal government also pays him an estimated USD 200k per annum plus expenses to run his office and pay for his staff. Some presidents even get to keep their daily transport (Reagan, his Air Force One and Marine One , plus his motorcade; Clinton his Cadillac One).

It does not stop there. Unlike their normal compatriots though, when it comes to future employment, the group is spoilt for choice. No "work" (of the traditional definition is involved). Presidents easily are paid a minimum USD 50k for making speeches. Then there are also directorships or other board appointments in well known companies.

What is the point of all this, you may ask. Stick around, more will be revealed.

The Facebookers

I still remember that moment when I realized the intrusion of Facebook, a social-network website, on my life. It was the moment when a Friend I haven't met for five years (but was on my facebook list of friends) knew my day-to-day, event-by-event , whereabouts- and recited every details when we met. It inadvertently felt I have a stalker- a compulsory accessory for being a celebrity- but hardly the nicest feeling in the world.

If you wish to become stalked as well, there is a way. Join Facebook ! For an-obviously- laudable purpose of writing this article, your correspondent decided to sign up and become a facebooker approximately six months ago.

If anything, becoming a facebooker has notified your correspondent that we are all equal : equally liking to do the same stuffs (can't wait for the weekends and long weekends is a common "status update") ; equally whining about the same problem (getting stuck in traffic, the rain pouring down). It is also enabling your correspondent to confirm one of his suspicion: that those non working ibu-ibu arisan are using their BlackBerry for facebooking !

Your correspondent could be wrong, but it does appear slightly unlikely that the ibu-ibu arisan will become BlackBerry's celebrity pitchman, advertising their product (a recent article in the New York Times discussed how President Obama is currently BlackBerry's best marketing spokesperson, for embodying the values of a great communicator and a networker. Imagine the slogan: "The President has to have this to keep in touch").

Indeed there is anecdotal evidence - I just like this expression, remnant of the old days as a management consultant-that the increasing visibility of BlackBerry devotees in Indonesia is linked to the willingness to keep connected and networked, to be able to find out what friends, colleagues are doing; to satisfy the seemingly insatiable appetite to find old friends (and old flames?). Plenty high school and university reunions have been facilitated by Facebook. It looks like that BlackBerry have suddenly found , in Facebook, the ideal partner to expand their market in Indonesia, well beyond the standard "surgically attached to their hip" professionals. Facebookers of the world, unite !

Fare well 2009, may you be better than 2008

Anybody who has been reading up on next year's forecasts- issued by the members of the commentariat- is unlikely to feel optimistic about 2009. A recent Rabobank forecast, for example, believes that the UK economy will shrink by 1.5 % and that unemployment will reach as high as 8.5 % (at the time this newspaper went to press, it is not certain whether the predicted unemployed include Gordon Brown).



The Indonesians amongst us old enough to remember the infamous Krismon surely now have that sinking feel of how familiar all of this is. However - there are probably lesser number of Indonesians now who remain optimistic that somehow, all of the doomsday scenario will come to naught.



Of course there is some basis for being a tad optimistic about the situation. In a survey by The Economist issued for the 10th anniversary of the Asian Economic Crisis in June of this year, it is quite robust in the assessments that our banks are stronger than before; that our foreign reserves are more plentiful ; and that our economy is not as reliant on foreign investment as before. In addition - in the words of a former ambassador of the court of St. James's to Indonesia - "Indonesia is a dissappointing country; it dissappoints the pessimists, but it also dissappoints the optimists".



For all our sake, may Indonesia be a very dissappointing country in 2009.

A View to A Kill

If the world is remotely like " Quantum of Solace", then Ford would not be reporting a loss in their latest quarterly report. In such a world, every secret agent drives an Aston Martin, every police force employs a Land Rover and every sinister character prefers the rugged Range Rover as the Bad Mobile.

Such is the power of product placement these days that your correspondent fails to find the Bond-ness of "Quantum". Afterall, none of the old formula remains. Gone are Q, Moneypenny and even the trusted "Bond, James Bond" routine. The ol' boy is no longer the last bastion of the upper class. He goes mass market by driving the - no surprise - Ford Focus and Ford Fiesta.

If this were not a 007 movie , would your correspondent even bothered? The sad answer is : probably not. Take out the franchise and what we have is pure and simple an action movie. And not a good one at that. The story are nowhere as good as Bourne trilogy for example (come to think of it, does the scene of our MI6 man chasing agent Mitchell over rooftops remind you of a similar scene in the last Bourne movie?).

If the direction continues like this, it is likely the License to Thrill need to be revoked. The franchise need to say No but with sufficient verbal dexterity to learn Never Say Never in coping with commercial pressures. After all, The World is Not Enough for too many changes On Her Majesty's Secret Service. One view of this movie is enough to kill the franchise.

Perhaps to make the point, the original 007 , Sean Connery makes an appearance as the Louis Vitton advert in the same week that "Quantum" makes its debut. Coincidence? I expect you to think, 007.

Yes, He Did

In the annals of The Economist, "The World in 2008" would not feature high in the powers of prediction. In the publication - published towards the end of last year- it strongly predicted that next president of the United States would be .. Senator Hillary Clinton.
President-elect Obama's victory has been received - rightly - with plenty of good will. Kenya declared a day of national holiday. Your correspondent just happens to believe the RI government can now feel proud to have one of its former students become "the leader of the free world" (and Hardiknas now have a living mascot).
It will really be interesting to observe the next days ahead. Some will know that one of the names being considered for the White House Chief of Staff is Rep. Rahm Emmanuel. Incidentally - for some of us who are political hacks, and we do exist- he is the model for the character of "Josh Lyman" in the NBC series "The West Wing". It is widely believed that the White House chief of staff is the 2nd most powerful job. It is tasked with giving recommendations for the President and in charge to ensure the cabinet toes the party line.
Other key appointments will be Treasury. Arguably this is one of the rarer moments of history whereby the post is probably more important than State.
As Indonesians, we should observe the extremly gracious concession speech as a model for our own 2009 election.

And the Winner is ...

Car? What Car?

Fully accessorized car....

Till Debt Do Us Part

The last time the words "crisis", "cabinet reshuffle", "drastic depreciation" were deployed in Indonesian politics, a president fell from grace. Ten years and four presidents later, my fellow correspondents might be waiting with glee for a chance to employ these in their lexicons again.
But this article is not about that rumour of a senior minister plotting to deport another senior minister (whose welfare not as equal). It is however about the current crisis , once thought only will engulf the U.S. Of A but not WOUSA (world outside the USA). In particular, this crisis is about whether indeed in our case, capitalism is at bay.
Unless you have been staying in a deserted island since early October, you would have heard whispers of pure poison about the rise and fall of capitalism and that the time of socialism is upon you. The Economist, that bastion of free market and democratic reform has predictably put a case arguing that infact capitalism should still be the preferred model, because it has been responsible for all the wealth creation that the world has ever seen. It has also argued that speculators , the favourite bad guy making the rounds these days are in fact not responsible at all for this crisis.
So should we in Indonesia flog capitalism at the next market and try our luck with Cooperatives?
Cooperatives in Indonesia - much to its acknowledged "father", co-proclamator Hatta's dismay- never really found the market equilibrium.
Even in the bad old days of the Krismon, we never looked back and continue to worship at the temple of capitalism...

Back to the Future

One more way to reduce pollution ...

Great Expectations

Jakarta, on one of the more beautiful days. My dearest wish is that this picture does not create such high expectations, bound to dissappoint would-be visitors ...

A change in the climate ?

Will the recent global market rout mean less money for the climate change fighting efforts ? At least this question was felt to be important enough that Messr. Sarkozy felt needed to be laid to rest at Thursday's announcement in Brussels.

The impact of the rout should not be understated. A recent special report suggested that a staggering USD 10 trillion of value could be wiped out between now and 2009. For comparison, this is 10 % of the annual US ' Gross Domestic Product.

There is a temptation to focus on wealth maintenance rather than health maintenance. Indeed your correspondent felt compelled to understand the answer to this question.

Though Mr. Sarkozy have confirmed that the funds earmarked to save the laissez fare economy will not result in less fund available to fight climate change, the details have not been immediately available. It is difficult though to comprehend that there won't be an impact. By now, the US have added USD 700 billion to their USD 435 trillion budget deficit, all in the name of saving the US economy. The UK have confirmed that it will spend GBP 250 billion to nationalize household names such as Lloyd's TSB and HBOS. The EU - old and new - does not want to be left behind and have pledged EUR 350 billion, also to nationalise troubled banks.

Our dear government meanwhile have indeed taken some steps. However at the time this newspaper went to press, there has been no discussion with regards to if less funds will be made available to fend off climate change. Upon closer inspection however - given the very low number of projects planned-the impact appreared to be unsurprisingly negligible.

The crux of the activities have not been expected to be funded or coming by the government. They have been expected to be a result of a change in the behaviour of each and every individual's. Plenty of these also did not require investment.

Therefore please continue to
* B2W (less pollution)
* Switch off the lights when you leave the room (less coal being burnt)
* Convert those energy guzzler light bulbs (ditto)
* Be as paperless at work as possible (be a tree hugger)
* Continue to print on used paper
* Don't send unnecessarily large attachments with your email (less use of your bandwidth, therefore less energy consumed)
* Design those houses who are easy on the sunlights
* Set those aircons on timers

Keep those ideas flowing in ...

The Week From Hell

A week is a long time in politics, but apparently it was even longer in world finance. This was the week that your correspondent had planned to be a week filled with leisurely walk with the missus and the kids at malls, trialing that new oma fiets recently bought and perhaps even a sip or two of the nouvoeu vines bought recently. Alas that did not exactly happen.

As would become rather obvious by now, instead the week was spent glued to the telly and or surfing that bastion of western newsmedia, CNN.com. The last time your correspondent formed such attachments to the twin tubes of tv and internet was during the September 11 attacks. Though the causes are markedly different, the sinking feeling is oddly similar.

To make things worse, there does not seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. The worrying thing is that this crisis seems to have a life of its own. The oft-cited "the index has hit its lowest level since somany years" well hit a new low the day after. Why buy now when you can buy it cheaper tomorrow?

Such is the life of the monster though that the governments seemed powerlesss to put a stop to it. It is also frustrating to see that the governments have even gone to the extend of nationalizing insurance companies, investment banks and building society. At least this has not been the tactic chosen by our dear president and let's hope he is not tempted. Governments across the world don't have a good track record of running insurance companies for example. Is this the time for them to dabble their hands into the companies ?

Friends I spoke to have advised to keep our seatbelts on. Most seemed to agree that though this situation maybe a holding pattern, the ground is not visible yet. A thick fog of uncertainty and panic is blanketing the situation and the best thing to do may well be not to make any rush decisions. Alas the irrational exuberance of panic investors may well be the fitting match to the same irrational exuberance which started this giddying crisis in the first place.

Laugh at First Sight

If your insurance company have just received USD 85 billion from the government, and in return, the government nationalized your company, what is the first thing you would do? Well -naturally - you would take your best sales reps to a resort, celebrate what a good year it has been so far and spend the better part of USD 400, 000।

That , at any rate, was apparently what American Insurance Group (AIG), an insurance company, was doing around last week. At this point let me declare a potential conflict of interest : I own an AIA Life Insurance policy, so I do have an interest in seeing the company is still around when my policy expires.

I am guessing there were plenty of glee around the table of business ethics wonks when news of this sales conference spread. They have a new set of ammunition when this morning it was reported AIG would receive an additional USD 35 billion. It is this correspondent's feverish hope that AIG would not be tempted to splash it on another junket trip (not even on a smaller resort, just because the new funds is less than the first injection).

Given the barrage of less than good news , it is quite likely that the AIG sales reps in the holiday resort will be joined by central bankers , ex employees of Lehman Brothers and the common people like you and me (though by this time - with all these people - the resort should be rather full)।

This turn of events is a big pity for the development of the insurance market for Indonesia. There are plenty of my fellow citizens who must be wishing they bought more handbags than insurance policies. But the reality is more and more people were gambling their future on insurance.

I remember a close friend of mine who is working on the sideline as an insurance agent. He laughed outloud when he knew how small my policy was. He immediately offered me a policy which would have meant I need to pay Rp. 3.5 million per month. Strangely enough I have never heard from him again since the last time we spoke , which was ,er, just before the crisis begin

I don't think he is still laughing at me now. But I also am not laughing either. On paper , I am not sure what is the return on my stock market-linked policy. But at least my portfolio is not all in insurance.

For all our sakes, this downturn had better be not too severe and not too long. However as we know we did not get to where we are overnight. Getting out won't be an overnight trip either, though spending it in a resort might ease the pain.

Nightmare on our Street

Within days of your correspondent's "House of Cards" feature being published in this newspaper, a number of Indonesian cabinet ministers and renowned economists began to fret about the same topic : what is the impact of the US Economic Crisis on our own economy. Though on one hand it is gratifying to note other, more established experts have the same train of thought, on the other hand, it is unnerving to read on their comments and feels a lack of confidence in the preparation level.

We do not have the time to go through the usual motion resulting in the nation back to square one after, say, 3 months. All the usual players, legislators, policymakers and the commentariat ranks need to start from the same page. The stakes are frankly too high to continue play politics as usual. If there is a time to play as a team, this is it. Where is the Lembaga Penjamin? Where is the DPP Real Estate Indonesia ?

The reality is though that with the elections around the corner, there is a possibility that , in fact, it will be politics as usual. The MPs will play safe and not taking any risks with a potentially budget busting policies. The central bank and the financial institutions are probably reluctant to support any monetary expansion by a (potentially) lameduck administration.

Short of suggesting all the stakeholders is in need of changes of their living organ inside of their cranial, it does not appear there is much that can be done overnight.

So what is there that can be done ? This newspaper has a few suggestions :
1)The central bank to impose a new policy disincentivising the banking industry to extend loans to the people who can not have a mortgage. This newspaper does not have access to the extent to which mortgage accounts for banking loans but it may be quite significant.

2)The central bank to increase the industry's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for a definite period of time. This additional breathing space can be used for the central bank either to nudge banks to conduct self audit or if forced to externally audit the suspected banks.

3)Commission a quick study to get a feel of the interconnectedness between the local portfolio and those of the now infamous CDs and all the other exotic acronyms spewn by the U.S.

It is your correspondent's fervent hope and wishes that our country and tax payers like you and me do not need to bear the burden of a bailout to help the fat cats who were grossly overpaid and grossly incompetent.

Selamat Lebaran

Your correspondent would like to wish the readers a Selamat Lebaran. May your lives become more meaningful, may you found your trueself and may you always be protected under the auspices of the creator.

House of Cards

For the first time in a long, long, time , President Bush will have quite a few people to agree with him. Quite. I am of course referring to last night's congressional rejection of the USD 700 bn package. He had said that rejection is a doomsday scenario. At this moment, not too many writings have been devoted to the (potential) side effect to our economy, so allow me to sketch a few broadbrush ideas.

It is commonly known that despite talk of a "decoupling", the fact of the matter is that Asian economies are growing less than predicted. There is therefore a strong base to believe that our economy will be quite affected by this latest development.

Our exports to the U.S. would most likely be slowing down , impacting our trade balance. Remember that as late as August of this year, our own president had tabled a budget of Rp. 1,000 trillion. This reduction in export receipts will impact the government's spending plans, of which the main feature was the already earmarked 20 % for education. This maybe one of the first to be impacted.

Speaking about budget, it is useful to speak about the middle class' budget. Jakartans will notice the web of sky rise office buildings and apartments currently blanketing Jakarta's skies. As the economy slows down, money becomes scarce and banks , real estate companies are relying ever more on the monthly mortgage payments. So long as the people still have jobs, this is not an issue. However the moment unemployment picks up, the probability of failure to keep up with the mortgage payment becomes higher. Assuming the houses/apartments were reposessed and offload into the market, such act will depress the property markt and may result in a negative valuation for the remaining owners. Banks become even more depressed, funds to invest or to cover liabilities become even scarcer. Overnight rates shot up, the central bank might have to step in. Sound familiar so far ?

The major difference (I think) between our economy and those of Uncle Sam's is that our mortgage market aren't as influential. Quite a few couples still live with their parents. Irrational exuberance did not have too many card-carrying members. The other - potentially more lethal- difference is quite a few property investments are speculative in nature. Either it is not being occupied or it is leased. The jury is still out on the strength of the buy-to-lease market but employment of young professionals would be a key factor.

As can be ascertained , thus far, the silver lining has not appeared in the horizon. However, as one former Ambassador of the Court of St. James to the country memorably said, "Indonesia is a country for the optimistic pessimist". This pessimist would more than prefer to be proven wrong.

A Safer Exodus

Frequent readers of this newspaper would recall a recent article supporting the development of the Trans Java highway. Given the expected headlines in the newspapers about the oh so long time it takes to reach one's kampong during the Lebaran period, it seems more daft for the government not to shift construction to the fifth gear.

The case is strengthened by the serial unreliability of the alternative modus of road transport, especially that of the trains. Derailed trains, accidents involving the daredevil passengers sitting on top of the coaches are a common occurence. It is feared that as the train activities pick up, the incidents become more frequent.

Therefore if the government still doubts about the return on their investment of the highway, they should start with a good feeling that by doing so, they have saved the lives of their citizens. Should this not be sufficient, surely a moral bancruptcy has occured.

Return of a more hedonistic nature are obviously still can be expected. If you look at the developed highway system of Europe for example, where your correspondent is mildly acquainted with, hotels, amusement parks, theme parks, petrol stations , all sprang up like mushroom in the wet season. These bring investment which begets employment and tax revenues. These in turn create the multiplier effect in both the national and the local economies. At the same time it encourages entrepreneurs to be more innovative in adjusting to this new phenomenon and compete for customers. So everybody wins, right ?

But the biggest winner will be people like you and me. Our travels will be safer, more relaxing and - hopefully- will spawn an industry of local winnebagos / RVs !

The Rainbow Warriors

This time next week, Jakarta will be able to take a breath of fresh air resulting from a virtual absence of cars, pollution generator buses and Valentino Rossi wannabes motorcyclists. Alas this heavenly period only lasts for one week before the well-travelled permanent visitors headback to the nation's capital.

Anybody who was in Pondok Indah Mall tonight must have been wishing for an early Lebaran. The place was jammed with cars , bumper to bumper. It took as long to leave the underground parking lot as it does to travel from Kebayoran Lama to the mall itself. The heat and pollution underground was unbearable and I felt really sorry for the security team and the parking attendants who were still there and could not escape from the netherworlds.

Of course this being one of Saturday night plays a factor for this additional hot air but I wonder if the other reason is the showing of Laskar Pelangi, based on an acclaimed best seller about the travails of two idealistic teachers and their students in Belitong ("Biliton").

Your correspondent, generally speaking, is not a big fan of local movies. But I am making an exception for this wonderfuly touching movie. The story is well known therefore it is not repeated here.

All sorts of emotions came up. Childhood memories, emotional attachment and perhaps even social cohesion.

Childhood memories

Watching the movie brings back your correspondent's childhood memories of the situation around 1979. The products, newspapers, cars, music. Did anybody see the blue Datsun Pick up ?

Emotional attachment

The more emotionally accomplished might feel blessed that despite their problems living in Jakarta, all their whinings are nothing compared to the very basic needs of education that those very brave children in Belitong were fighting for.

It also reminds me of all my teachers from my SD years. I have lost touch of all of my SD friends and I wonder what happened to them. I am now 37 years old so it has been 25 years since the last time I saw them.

Social cohesion

But perhaps the real message of this narrative is further proof of Indonesian diversity and that Indonesians of all background can and should forget their differences and focus on how to make the most of it. The children are malays, chinese; moslem, mysticists and buddhists. And yet , despite the odds stacked against them, they blended into a solid, close and loyal team.

In preparation for the maelstrom of bad economic news from the US and the politics for the parliamentary and presidential elections of next year, this spirit would really come in handy inside each and everyone of us, Indonesians.